HepC Prevalence Will Decrease Significantly by 2030

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) worldwide will likely decrease significantly by 2030, in accordance with the goals set forth by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016.

Data and predictions about the future prevalence of HCV were presented by Seth Kuranz, MPH, on August 10, 2017,¹ and by Ruchika Sharma, MPH, on August 11, 2017,² at the 5th World Congress on Hepatitis & Liver Diseases in London.
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HCV contributes significantly to the global burden of disease. WHO estimates that 130 to 150 million people worldwide have chronic HCV infection, and this rate continues to increase in several geographic regions despite improved treatment. To combat this, WHO released a global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis in 2016 based on the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 report. The future prevalence and incidence of HCV will depend on the rates of diagnosis and compliance with HCV treatment.

To estimate the prevalence of HCV within the next 10 years, Kuranz and colleagues systematically reviewed the literature and analyzed National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles from 2007 to 2014. Diagnosis, drug treatment assumption, and demographic changes related to aging and population growth were incorporated into a trend and were applied to region-specific HCV genotypes and cirrhotic distributions.

Results of Kuranz’s forecast indicate that the prevalence of viremic cases of HCV will likely decrease by more than 20% from 2017 to 2027 due to reduced risk in the population and improved treatment, assuming that rates of treatment and treatment efficacy remain constant. However, if treatment availability and compliance continues to improve, the prevalence of HCV will likely decrease by an even greater magnitude by 2027.

Sharma and colleagues carried out a similar forecast analysis. They reviewed published literature for prevalence, incidence, and genotype distribution across 45 countries and analyzed NHANES data.

Results of Sharma’s forecast also suggest a considerable decrease in the number of prevalent viremic cases by 2030, in accordance with WHO targets. The viremic prevalence will likely be highest in Africa (1.54) and lowest in North America (0.76) by 2020, Sharma said. However, the researchers forecast the viremic prevalence to decrease to 0.15 in North America and 1.0 in Africa by 2030.

“Viremic prevalence will decrease substantially in both higher-income and lower-income countries with the later experiencing the largest decrease in prevalence over the forecast period,” Kuranz concluded.

—Christina Vogt

References:

1.Kuranz S. The global burden of hepatitis C: a 10-year forecast. Paper presented at: 5th World Congress on Hepatitis & Liver Diseases; August 10-12, 2017. London, UK. http://hepatitis.conferenceseries.com/abstract/2017/the-global-burden-of-hepatitis-c-a-10-year-forecast.

2. Sharma R. The global burden of hepatitis C in relation to sustainable development goals 2030 targets. Paper presented at: 5th World Congress on Hepatitis & Liver Diseases; August 10-12, 2017. London, UK. http://hepatitis.conferenceseries.com/abstract/2017/the-global-burden-of-hepatitis-c-in-relation-to-sustainable-development-goals-2030-targets.