Cancer Burden May Shift by 2030 for People Living with HIV

A new study projected AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) rates to decrease and age-specific cancer rates to increase slightly for people living with HIV (PLWH) by 2030, which is attributed to the widespread use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and improved survival rates in PLWH.

The study included cancer incidence data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study from 2000 to 2012. Researchers calculated cancer burden for 2013 to 2030 and estimated incidence rates by age group and risk group, such as men who have sex with men, for certain cancers. ADCs included Kaposi sarcoma (KS), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer, while non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADC) included, lung, colon, anal, breast, liver, prostate and oral cancers, and Hodgkin lymphoma, as well as all other cancers.

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Overall, they estimated that the total US HIV population aged 65 years or older would increase from 4.1% in 2006 to 21.4% in 2030.

Based on data from 2000 to 2012, age-specific rates for NHL, cervical cancer, lung cancer, and all other cancers were projected to decrease across all age groups, and rates for KS, Hodgkin lymphoma, and colon cancer were projected to decrease for certain age groups. Prostate cancer rates were projected to increase, while all other age-specific rates showed no significant changes.

Overall, the total cancer burden for PLWH was estimated to decrease from 7908 cases in 2010 to 6495 cases in 2030. ADC was estimated to decrease from 2719 in 2010 to 701 in 2030, but NADC were estimated to increase slightly from 5190 cases in 2010 to 5794 cases in 2030.

Researchers projected that the most common cancers in 2030 for the PLWH population would be prostate, lung, liver, anal, and NHL.

“Though cancer rates are generally decreasing, cancer will remain an important co-morbidity as the US HIV population ages,” the researchers concluded. “Targeted cancer prevention, early detection and control efforts are needed for PLWH in the U.S., including smoking cessation, treatment of hepatitis C and B viruses, cancer screening and continued widespread treatment with HAART.”

—Melissa Weiss

Reference:

Islam JY, Rosenberg PS, Hall HI, Jacobson EU, Engels EA, and Shiels MS. Projections of cancer incidence and burden among the HIV-positive population in the United States through 2030. Presented at: American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting; April 1-5, 2017; Washington, DC. http://www.abstractsonline.com/pp8/#!/4292/presentation/4693.