ADPKD Progression Effectively Predicted With New Model
The Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) effectively predicts disease progression and outcomes in patients with the condition, a new study found.
The researchers constructed the model using available data from the placebo arm of the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and its Outcomes Study (TEMPO 3:4).
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The basis of the lifetime patient-level simulation models was formed using multivariable regression equations to estimate annual rates of ADPKD progression in terms of total kidney volume (TKV), as well as estimated glomerular filtration rate. Outputs of the model were subsequently compared with external data sources.
Model predictions indicated that a cohort similar to that of TEMPO 3:4 would reach end-stage renal disease (ESRD) at a mean age of 52 years, with most reaching ESRD by age 65 years. Ultimately, the predictive ability of ADPKD-OM was confirmed by validation exercises and illustrative analyses.
The researchers also noted that, consistent with previous evidence, baseline TKV was an effective prognostic factor for ADPKD progression.
“The ADPKD-OM represents a robust tool to predict natural disease progression and long-term outcomes in ADPKD patients, based on readily available and/or measurable clinical characteristics,” the researchers concluded. “In conjunction with clinical judgement, it has the potential to support decision-making in research and clinical practice.”
—Christina Vogt
Reference:
McEwan P, Wilton HB, Ong ACM, et al. A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model [Published online February 13, 2018]. BMC Nephrol. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12882-017-0804-2.