Tool Predicts 5-Year Death Risk In Dementia Patients

Researchers have created a tool that could help to predict which patients with dementia are most at risk of dying or being admitted to a long-term care facility.

They conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using data on 108,757 patients aged 65 years and older with a diagnosis of dementia between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 in Ontario, Canada.

After 5 years, 24.4% of the participants were living in the community and 20.5% were living in long-term care facilities. Of the 55.1% of participants who died, 27.9% had been admitted to long-term care facilities beforehand.

The researchers identified 3 risk factors associated with an increased risk of death: older age, male sex, and organ failure (including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, and renal failure).

“We present death risk based on these 3 factors, which can be used by clinicians to open a discussion with patients and their families regarding risk of death and admission to a long-term care home. To minimize the societal and economic burden of dementia, further research is needed to better understand how to best support individuals with dementia and their caregivers to live safely and independently in the community,” the researchers concluded.

—Michael Potts

Reference:
Huyer G, Brown CRL, Spruin S, et al. Five-year risk of admission to long-term care home and death for older adults given a new diagnosis of dementia: a population-based retrospective cohort study [published online April 19, 2020. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.190999